Introduction

We assess our risk all the time. This is how we survive. It is a process that is not unique to digital and/or information security.

When take a walk at night on a quiet street, we make decisions about which side of the street to walk on, how to behave, what to prepare, how to walk, based on our understanding of the situation: Is this street known for being a dangerous one? Is the community where this street is a dangerous one? Do I know anyone on this street who could come to my aid? Can I run fast, if something happens? Am I carrying anything of value that I can bargain with? Am I carrying anything that can put me in greater harm? Which part of this street can I walk on to avoid possible harm?

When our organisations plan a new project, we consider the ways in which it could fail. We make design decisions based on what we know of the context and the factors in it that would lead to the project not achieving its goals.

When we organise protests, we look at ways to keep the protest and those in it safe. We organise buddy systems. We make sure there is immediate legal support in case of arrests. We instruct those attending about how to behave to avoid being harassed by authorities. We strategise ways in which to conduct a protest peacefully in order to lessen the risk to those participating. We have people in the protest whose responsibility is to maintain its safety.

While assessing our own risks may be a practice that we do instinctively, risk assessment is a specific process we undergo – usually as a collective – in order to know how we can avoid threats and/or respond to those threats.

Risk assessment: Online and offline

Assessing our risks online is not as instinctive, for various reasons. Many of us do not understand how the internet works and where its threats and risks are – and these continue to evolve and grow. Some have the attitude of perceiving online activities, actions and behaviour as not being “real”, with less serious effects than what happens to us physically. At the other end of the spectrum, those that know of or have experienced incidents where a person’s “real” life was affected by their online activities (people being scammed on dating sites, people whose taboo internet interactions were made public, or activists being arrested for saying something against their government) tend to have a paranoid view of the internet.

The reality is that for many activists, the online/offline binary is false. The use of digital devices (mobile phones, laptops, tablets, computers, etc.) and internet-based services, apps and platforms (Google, Facebook, Viber, Instagram, WhatsApp, etc.) is commonplace in the work of many activists – in organising and in advocacy work. How we organise and do our work as activists has evolved as technology has advanced and developed – and will continue to do so. The internet and digital technologies are a critical part of our organising infrastructure. We use them in communicating, organising activities, building our community, and also as a site of our activities. In-person gatherings and advocacy events are often accompanied by online engagement, especially on social media and through hashtags. In recent protest movements, there is often a seamless flow between online and offline mobilising, organising and gatherings.

Instead of perceiving what happens on the internet as something separate from our physical realities, think of offline <-> online realities as interconnected and porous. We exist in both, most of the time, at the same time. What is happening in one affects how we are in the other one

This also means that the risks and threats move from online to offline and vice versa. For example, advanced state surveillance strategies against activists and their movements exploit un-secure use of technologies (i.e. clicking on unverified links, or downloading and opening unverified files) in order to be able to gather more information about activists and their groups and movements that may eventually lead to physical surveillance. Anyone who has experienced online gender-based violence (OGBV) knows the psycho-social effects of such attacks and harassment. There have also been cases where OGBV has escalated to affecting the physical security of those who have been targeted. Different forms of OGBV (stalking, doxxing, harassment) have been tactics used against feminist and queer activists in order to threaten them into silence and compliance.

Thinking about the porous online <-> offline nature of threats and risks can be overwhelming – where do we begin assessing and knowing what the threats are and where they are coming from, and strategising what to do about them?

What is risk assessment?

Risk assessment is the beginning of a process to become more resilient in responding to changing contexts and threats. The purpose of assessing risk is to be able to come up with strategies and tactics to mitigate the risks, and to be able to make more informed decisions.

In general terms, risk is the exposure to the possibility of harm, injury or loss.

In risk assessment, it is the capacity (or lack thereof) of an individual/organisation/collective to respond to the impact(s) of a realised threat, or the capacity of an individual/organisation/collective avoid a threat from being realised.

There is a known formula for risk assessment:

Risk = threat x probability x impact/capacity

Wherein:

  • Threat is any negative action aimed towards a person/group.
    • Direct threats are declared intention to cause harm.
    • Indirect threats are those that happen as a result of a change in a situation.
    • In defining threats, it is important to identify where the threat is coming from. Even better, who is the threat from.
  • Probability is the likelihood of a threat becoming real.
    • A related concept to probability is vulnerability. This can be about location, practice and behaviour of the individual/group that increase the opportunities for a threat to be realised.
    • This is also about the capacity of the groups/individuals that are making the threat, especially in relation to the individual/group that is being threatened.
    • To assess probability, ask if you have real examples of a threat happening to someone or a group that you know – and compare that situation with yours.
  • Impact is what will happen when the threat is realised. The consequences of the threat.
    • Impact can be on the individual, organisational, network or movement.
    • The higher the degree and number of impacts of one threat, the greater the risk.
  • Capacities are skills, strengths and resources a group has access to in order to either minimise the probability of the threat, or respond to the impact of the threat.
Continue to this material's next page (Case study - Threats)

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